DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook report was published on Sep 1st – the fifth since its inception in 2017.
This year, the report aims to analyse how covid-19 has impacted the energy systems transition, and consequently, the warming effect that follows in its wake.
Two key findings: the energy mix is estimated to be 50/50 fossil/renewable in 2050, and a pandemic-level drop in emissions is required every year to limit the worst fallout of the climate crisis.
Translated to global warming effects, this is alarming for the two degree target in the Paris Agreement. We will have 2.3 degrees of warming in 2100 unless there is a «revolution», according to Remi Eriksen, CEO of DNV.
“But there are silver linings. How competitive will different technologies become in the future, when learnings are built in and costs are coming down? There are great examples in the past, about solar, wind and battery technologies which got incentives and stimulus for maybe more than 20 years, that we now see the impact of», he says.
«That cost-learning we’ll also see for new tech, when it is put into applications. So the most encouraging aspect of the energy transition is that electricity is growing, and it’s greening very rapidly. The demand for electricity is going to double».
Eriksen emphasises that there are promising trends, even at home. DNV initiated the Green Shipping Programme 6 years ago, where 80 companies collaborate in the effort to accelerate clean technology solutions.
«Norway leads the way. Approximately 23 percent of the ferries running along our coast run primarily on electricity. The idea now is to take this learning and scale it into deep sea shipping», Eriksen says.